Small caps before the open of the session

100.0% of the 63 graded small cap flags have a peak on file beside the max full close, so this morning's starting point is a complete peak field, not a fresh market signal. I don't read that as proof the next runner will cooperate.

What happened The hour chart puts the largest count in the 09:00 Eastern bucket, with 12 later highs, but it doesn't tell us which side of the 9:30 open those trades landed on. That's a real limitation for a premarket desk trying to separate early movement from regular-session action. Treating the whole bucket as premarket would muddy the read.

Why it matters A later high isn't the same thing as a closing result, and that distinction matters more to me than a neat-looking hit rate. The ladder counts whether a price reached a line, without telling us how long it stayed there or whether meaningful size could trade. I want that gap visible rather than buried beneath the graphic.

The new number The new statistic measures record coverage, not the odds of another advance from wherever a stock happens to trade this morning. Its denominator is graded flags, which means it describes this file rather than small caps across the exchange. Without a sampling window or selection rules, I wouldn't stretch it into a market-wide claim.

{"key":"peaked-share","label":"Flags with a peak on file","value":100,"decimals":1,"suffix":"%","n":63,"method":"Share of graded flags that have a peak on file beside the max full close."}

[{"id":"hours","kind":"bars","title":"Hour of the later high","caption":"Stories counted by the hour of that later high, Eastern time.","unit":"flags","items":[{"label":"07:00","value":10},{"label":"08:00","value":6},{"label":"09:00","value":12},{"label":"10:00","value":10},{"label":"11:00","value":8},{"label":"12:00","value":1},{"label":"13:00","value":6},{"label":"14:00","value":5},{"label":"15:00","value":5}]},{"id":"ladder","kind":"waffle","title":"How many later prices reached each line","caption":"Filled cells are the share of 63 stories whose later high reached the line. Twenty cells, so each cell is 5 points.","rows":[{"label":"+10% close","filled":15,"total":20},{"label":"+15% close","filled":12,"total":20},{"label":"+20% close","filled":10,"total":20}]}]

What to watch For the session ahead, I'm watching whether activity spreads across small caps or stays concentrated in a handful of names; this historical file can't settle that before the bell. The missing detail I'd most like is elapsed time from each flag to its later high. Clock hour alone doesn't tell me how much waiting was involved.

General market news. Not investment advice. This does not replace advice that considers your personal circumstances. Personal interest at publication: none. The desk does not trade the Runner Flag name before the 9:30 ET open on the publication day.